Peter Davis & Roy Lay-Yee 
Simulating Societal Change [PDF ebook] 
Counterfactual Modelling for Social and Policy Inquiry

Chapter1. Introduction.- Chapter2. Conceptual and Analytical Foundations.- Chapter3. Socia Lab. A Dynamic Microsimulation Model.- Chapter4. Tracking Societal Change – Its Major Components.- Chapter5. Data Preparation.- Chapter6. Statistical Analysis.- Chapter7. Simulation.- Chapter8. The “Seven Ages”. A Framework for Social and Policy Issues.- Chapter9. Tracking Societal Change. Descriptive Results.- Chapter10. “What If”? Counterfactual Modelling with Socia Lab.- Chapter11. Conclusion.

Peter Davis is Honorary Professor in the Department of Statistics and Emeritus Professor in Population Health and Social Science, at the University of Auckland. He was founding director of  the COMPASS (Centre of Methods and Policy Application in the Social Sciences) Research Centre and recently completed a two-year James Cook Fellowship funded by the Royal Society of New Zealand. He has also held the position of Senior Editor (Health Policy) at
Social Science and Medicine.

Roy Lay-Yee is Senior Research Fellow at the COMPASS Research Centre, University of Auckland, New Zealand. His research interests include health services utilisation, use of official data, social simulation, ageing, social determinants and inequalities, and social connectedness.