A comprehensive history of the evolution of technical analysis
from ancient times to the Internet age
Whether driven by mass psychology, fear or greed of investors,
the forces of supply and demand, or a combination, technical
analysis has flourished for thousands of years on the outskirts of
the financial establishment. In The Evolution of Technical
Analysis: Financial Prediction from Babylonian Tablets to Bloomberg
Terminals, MIT’s Andrew W. Lo details how the charting of past
stock prices for the purpose of identifying trends, patterns,
strength, and cycles within market data has allowed traders to make
informed investment decisions based in logic, rather than on luck.
The book
* Reveals the origins of technical analysis
* Compares and contrasts the Eastern practices of China and Japan
to Western methods
* Details the contributions of pioneers such as Charles Dow,
Munehisa Homma, Humphrey B. Neill, and William D. Gann
The Evolution of Technical Analysis explores the
fascinating history of technical analysis, tracing where technical
analysts failed, how they succeeded, and what it all means for
today’s traders and investors.
Tabla de materias
Introduction vii
Chapter 1: Ancient Roots 1
The Beginnings 2
Ancient Babylon 5
Ancient Greece 11
Ancient Rome 15
Negative Attitudes toward Traders 18
Chapter 2: The Middle Ages and the Renaissance 21
Western Europe 22
Technical Analysis 32
Societal Attitudes 39
Chapter 3: Asia 43
Japan 44
China 49
Chapter 4: The New World 59
Wall Street 60
Societal Attitudes 73
Chapter 5: A New Age for Technical Analysis 81
Dow Theory 82
Relative Strength 91
Market Cycles and Waves 92
Chart Patterns 94
Volume of Trading 96
Market Breadth 99
Nontechnical Analysis 99
Chapter 6: Technical Analysis Today 105
Trends 106
Patterns 109
Strength 111
Cycles 112
Wall Street’s Reinterpretation of Technical Analysis 114
Chapter 7: A Brief History of Randomness and Efficient Markets 131
Prices As Objects of Study 134
The Emergence of Efficient Markets 137
What is Random? 141
Chapter 8: Academic Approaches to Technical Analysis 149
Theoretical Underpinnings 150
Empirical Evaluation 151
Adaptive Markets and Technical Analysis 161
Notes 167
Bibliography 191
Acknowledgments 199
About the Authors 203
Index 205
Sobre el autor
ANDREW W. LO is the Harris & Harris Group Professor of Finance at MIT Sloan School of Management and the director of MIT’s Laboratory for Financial Engineering. He has published numerous papers in leading academic and practitioner journals, and his books include The Econometrics of Financial Markets, A Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, and Hedge Funds: An Analytic Perspective. His awards include the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Fellowship, the Paul A. Samuelson Award, the Graham and Dodd Award, the James R. Vertin Award, and the American Association of Individual Investors Award. He is also Chairman and Chief Investment Strategist of Alpha Simplex Group, LLC.
JASMINA HASANHODZIC is a research scientist at Alpha-Simplex Group, LLC, where she develops quantitative investment strategies and benchmarks. She received her Ph D from MIT’s Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. Her works on alternative market betas and technical analysis have appeared in leading publications, such as the Journal of Investment Management, and she is the coauthor with Andrew Lo of the book The Heretics of Finance. She also serves on the Board of Directors of the Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation.
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