The Visual Investor, Second Edition breaks down technical analysis into terms that are accessible to even individual investors. Aimed at the typical investor–such as the average CNBC viewer–this book shows investors how to follow the ups and downs of stock prices by visually comparing the charts, without using formulas or having a necessarily advanced understanding of technical analysis math and jargon. Murphy covers all the fundamentals, from chart types and market indicators to sector analysis and global investing, providing examples and easy-to-read charts so that any reader can become a skilled visual investor.
Tabla de materias
Preface xv
Acknowledgments xix
Section One Introduction 1
What Has Changed? 1
Fund Categories 2
Global Funds 2
Investors Need to Be Better Informed 3
Benefits of Visual Investing 3
Structure of the Book 3
Chapter 1 What Is Visual Investing? 5
Why Market Analysis? 5
The Trend Is to Blend 6
What’s in a Name? 6
Why Study the Market? 7
Chartists Are Cheaters 7
It’s Always Just Supply and Demand 7
Charts Are Just Faster 8
Charts Do Look Ahead 8
Pictures Don’t Lie 9
Picture Anything You Want 9
The Market’s Always Right 9
It’s All About Trend 10
Isn’t the Past Always Prologue? 10
Timing Is Everything 13
Summary 13
Chapter 2 The Trend Is Your Friend 15
What Is a Trend? 15
Support and Resistance Levels 18
Role Reversal 18
Short Versus Long Term 25
Daily, Weekly, and Monthly Charts 28
Recent versus Distant Past 28
Trendlines 31
Channel Lines 34
Retracing Our Steps by One-Third, One-Half, and Two-Thirds 34
Weekly Reversals 38
Summary 38
Chapter 3 Pictures That Tell a Story 41
Chart Types 41
Time Choices 46
Scaling 46
Volume Analysis 50
Chart Patterns 52
Measuring Techniques 61
Even the Fed Is Charting 65
The Triangle 65
Point-and-Figure Charts 66
Chart Pattern Recognition Software 70
Section Two Indicators 73
Chapter 4 Your Best Friend in a Trend 75
Two Classes of Indicators 75
The Moving Average 76
The Simple Average 76
Weighting the Average or Smoothing It? 77
Moving Average Lengths 77
Moving Average Combinations 78
Summary 95
Chapter 5 Is It Overbought or Oversold? 97
Measuring Overbought and Oversold Conditions 97
Divergences 97
Momentum 99
Welles Wilder’s Relative Strength Index 100
The Stochastics Oscillator 110
Combine RSI and Stochastics 113
Summary 119
Chapter 6 How to Have the Best of Both Worlds 121
MACD Construction 121
MACD as Trend-Following Indicator 123
MACD as an Oscillator 123
MACD Divergences 125
How to Blend Daily and Weekly Signals 125
How to Make MACD Even Better—The Histogram 128
Be Sure to Watch Monthly Signals 130
How to Know Which Indicators to Use 130
The Average Directional Movement (ADX) Line 133
Summary 135
Section Three Linkage 137
Chapter 7 Market Linkage 139
The Asset Allocation Process 140
The Relative Strength Ratio 142
2002 Shift from Paper to Hard Assets 142
Commodity/Bond Ratio also Turned up 144
Turns in the Bond/Stock Ratio 144
2007 Ratio Shifts Back to Bonds 147
Bonds Rise as Stocks Fall 147
Falling U.S. Rates Hurt the Dollar 147
Falling Dollar Pushes Gold to Record High 150
Commodity-Related Stocks 153
Foreign Stocks Are Linked to the Dollar 153
Commodity Exporters Get Bigger Boost 156
Global Decoupling Is a Myth 156
Rising Yen Threatens Global Stocks 158
Review of 2004 Intermarket Book 159
Summary 161
Chapter 8 Market Breadth 163
Measuring Market Breadth with NYSE AD Line 163
NYSE AD Line Violates Moving Average Lines 164
Advance-Decline Shows Negative Divergence 164
Where the Negative Divergences Were Located 166
Retail Stocks Start to Underperform During 2007 169
Retailers and Homebuilders Were Linked 171
Consumers are also Squeezed by Rising Oil 173
Dow Theory 173
Transports Don’t Confirm Industrial High 175
Percent of NYSE Stocks above 200-Day Average 175
NYSE Bullish Percent Index 179
Point-and-Figure Version of BPI 181
Summary 182
Chapter 9 Relative Strength and Rotation 183
Uses of Relative Strength 183
Top-Down Analysis 186
Relative Strength versus Absolute Performance 187
Using Relative Strength between Stocks 190
Comparing Gold Stocks to Gold 190
How to Spot New Market Leaders 193
Where the Money Came from 193
Spotting Rotation Back into Large Caps 196
Trend Changes Are Easy to Spot 198
Rotation within Market Sectors 198
Chinese Stocks Lose Leadership Role 200
Summary 202
Section Four Mutual Funds and Exchange Traded Funds 205
Chapter 10 Sectors and Industry Groups 207
Difference between Sectors and Industry Groups 208
Performance Charts 209
Sector Carpets 211
Using Market Carpet to Find Stock Leaders 212
Industry Group Leader 213
Sector Trends Need to Be Monitored 214
Information on Sectors and Industry Groups 214
Spotting Natural Gas Leadership 215
Natural Gas Components 215
CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index 217
Summary 221
Chapter 11 Mutual Funds 227
What Works on Mutual Funds 227
Open- versus Closed-End Funds 228
Charting Adjustments on Open-End Funds 228
Blending Fundamental and Technical Data 229
Relative Strength Analysis 229
Traditional and Nontraditional Mutual Funds 229
Keep It Simple 230
200-Day Moving Average and Housing 230
Natural Gas Breakout 232
Consumer Discretionary Breakdown 232
Bear Crossing Sinks Chips 235
Negative ROC Hurts Technology 235
Consumer Staples Hold Up Okay 235
Retail Ratio Plunges 235
Energizing a Portfolio 240
Latin America Leads 240
Real Estate Is Global 240
Profunds Rising Rates Fund 244
Profunds Falling U.S. Dollar Fund 244
Commodity Mutual Funds 247
Inverse Stock Funds 247
Summary 250
Chapter 12 Exchange-Traded Funds 251
ETFs versus Mutual Funds 252
Using ETFs to Hedge 253
Using a Bear ETF 253
Trading the Nasdaq 100 255
Using Sector ETFs 258
Inverse Sector ETFs 260
Using Technology as a Market Indicator 260
Commodity ETFs 263
Foreign Currency ETFs 263
Bond ETFs 267
International ETFs 269
Summary 275
Conclusion 279
Why It’s Called Visual Investing 279
The Media Will Always Tell You Why Later 279
Media Views Keep Shifting 280
Visual Analysis Is More User Friendly 280
Keep It Simple 280
Visual Tools Are Universal 281
The Stock Market Leads the Economy 281
Prices Lead the Fundamentals 282
Sector Investing 282
Exchange-Traded Funds 283
A Year After the 2007 Top 283
Warning Signs were Clearly Visible 284
Appendix A Getting Started 285
Find a Good Web Site 285
Use the Readers Choice Awards 285
Stock Charts.com 286
Chart School 286
Online Bookstore 287
Investor’s Business Daily 288
Stock Scans 288
Bullish Percent Indexes 289
Decision Point.com 294
Mc Clellan Breadth Indicators 294
Appendix B Japanese Candlesticks 295
Candlestick Patterns 297
Bullish Engulfing Pattern 298
Stock Scan Candlestick Patterns 300
Recommended Reading 300
Appendix C Point-and-Figure Charting 301
Triple and Quadruple Signals 302
How to Vary P&F Charts for Sensitivity 304
There’s No Doubt about P&F Signals 305
Recommended Reading 306
Index 307
Sobre el autor
JOHN J. MURPHY is a former technical analyst for CNBC and has over forty years of market experience. He is the face of Stock Charts.com, which provides financial information to online investors via technical analysis tools. Murphy has appeared on Bloomberg TV, CNN’s Moneyline, Nightly Business Report, and Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser. In 1992, he was given the first award for outstanding contribution to global technical analysis by the International Federation of Technical Analysts, and was the recipient of the 2002 Market Technicians Association Annual Award. In addition to the First Edition of The Visual Investor, he is also author of Intermarket Technical Analysis and Intermarket Analysis, all of which are published by Wiley. He also authored Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets. Murphy has a bachelor of arts in economics and a master of business administration from Fordham University.
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