Since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, East Asia has implemented a number of initiatives designed to strengthen monetary and financial cooperation, bolstering the region’s resilience to economic and financial vulnerabilities. One such initiative is the ASEAN+3 Information Exchange and Policy Dialogue, which includes development of early warning systems (EWS) for financial crises. This book examines efforts to develop EWS models. Specifically, the book analyzes the current understanding of the causes of currency and banking crises, describes recent progress in developing and applying EWS models for currency and banking crises, reviews methodolgical issues, assesses the predictive power of EWS models and also highlights areas where further research is required to make these models more effective tools for policy analysis. The case studies apply both parametric and nonparametric approaches to EWS modleing using data from six East Asian countries.
Table des matières
Foreword Overview; J.Zhuang & P.B.Rana Theories of Currency and Banking Crises: A Literature Review; S.Claessens Predicting Financial Crises: An Overview; M.Goldstein Nonparametric EWS Models of Currency and Banking Crises for East Asia; J.Zhuang A Parametric EWS Model of Currency Crises for East Asia; Y. Koo, C.S.Oh, H.Joo, S.Lee, J.A.Tan III & J.Zhuang
A propos de l’auteur
STIJIN CLAESSENS Professor of International Finance, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands MORRIS GOLDSTEIN Dennis Weatherstone Senior Fellow, Institute for International Economics, USA HYUNSOO JOO Strategist, Tong Yang Investment Bank, Korea YOUNGHOON KOO Managing Director, Lotte Economic Research Center, Korea SEUNGJAE LEE Research Analyst, Early Warning System Team, Korea Center for International Finance, Korea CHANG SEOK OH Chief Strategist & Head, Early Warning System Team, Korea Center for International Finance, Korea JOSE ANTONIO TAN III Consultant, Asian Development Bank, Philippines JUZHONG ZHUANG Principal Economist, Asian Development Bank, Philippines
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