If elections are easily predicted and voting behavior is easily explained with just a few fundamental variables, it seems quite plausible to argue that campaigns don′t matter. This book attempts to answer the question, ‘Do campaigns matter?’ by analyzing changes in public opinion during and across several presidential election campaigns. The crux of the argument is that although the national political and economic context of the election is very important, campaigns also play a crucial role in determining election outcomes. In particular, campaign events, such as conventions and debates, are primarily responsible for changes in public opinion that occur during the campaign period. Using many different data sources from several presidential campaigns, this important volume demonstrates that election outcomes are jointly produced by campaigns and national conditions. Covering an important and neglected subject, Do Campaigns Matter? is essential for students in political science at both graduate and undergraduate levels. Its original research, imaginative approach at conceptualizing data, and excellent empirical analysis, make it a must read for researchers and professionals as well.
Table des matières
Campaigns and Elections
Evidence Against Campaign Effects
A Model of Campaign Effects
Nominating Conventions
The Effect of Debates
Campaigns, National Conditions, and US Presidential Elections
The Role of Campaigns in US Presidential Elections
A propos de l’auteur
Thomas M. Holbrook is Emeritus Professor at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, where he was a Distinguished Professor and the Wilder Crane Professor of Government in the political science department. He is a former editor of American Politics Research and the author of Do Campaigns Matter (Sage, 1996), Altered States (Oxford, 2016), and dozens of articles on various aspects of voting behavior and elections in the United States, most recently focusing on local politics. Professor Holbrook has taught undergraduate courses on data analysis and survey research for the past three decades and has integrated R into his data analysis courses for the past several years.
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