Defending society against natural hazards is a high-stakes game
of chance against nature, involving tough decisions. How should a
developing nation allocate its budget between building schools for
towns without ones or making existing schools earthquake-resistant?
Does it make more sense to build levees to protect against floods,
or to prevent development in the areas at risk? Would more lives be
saved by making hospitals earthquake-resistant, or using the funds
for patient care? What should scientists tell the public when
– as occurred in L’Aquila, Italy and Mammoth Lakes,
California – there is a real but small risk of an upcoming
earthquake or volcanic eruption? Recent hurricanes,
earthquakes, and tsunamis show that society often handles such
choices poorly. Sometimes nature surprises us, when an earthquake,
hurricane, or flood is bigger or has greater effects than expected
from detailed hazard assessments. In other cases, nature outsmarts
us, doing great damage despite expensive mitigation measures or
causing us to divert limited resources to mitigate hazards that are
overestimated. Much of the problem comes from the fact that
formulating effective natural hazard policy involves combining
science, economics, and risk analysis to analyze a problem and
explore the costs and benefits of different options, in situations
where the future is very uncertain. Because mitigation policies are
typically chosen without such analysis, the results are often
disappointing. This book uses general principles and case studies
to explore how we can do better by taking an integrated view of
natural hazards issues, rather than treating the relevant
geoscience, engineering, economics, and policy formulation
separately. Thought-provoking questions at the end of each chapter
invite readers to confront the complex issues involved.
Readership: Instructors, researchers, practitioners, and
students interested in geoscience, engineering, economics, or
policy issues relevant to natural hazards. Suitable for upper-level
undergraduate or graduate courses.
Additional resources can be found at: href=’http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature’>http://www.wiley.com/go/Stein/Playingagainstnature
लेखक के बारे में
Seth Stein, Deering Professor of Geological Sciences at Northwestern University, is a seismologist interested in the science of large earthquakes and earthquake hazard mitigation. He has been awarded the James B. Macelwane Medal of the American Geophysical Union, the George Woollard Award of the Geological Society of America, the Stephan Mueller Medal of the European Geosciences Union, the Price Medal of the Royal Astronomical Society and a Humboldt Foundation Research Award.
The late Jerome Stein, who was Eastman Professor of Economics at Brown University, had interests including decision theory and formation of public policy.
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