Georges Matheron 
Estimating and Choosing [PDF ebook] 
An Essay on Probability in Practice

Ever since the beginning of modern probability theory in the seventeenth century there has been a continuous debate over the meaning and applicability of the concept of probability. This book presents a coherent and well thoughtout framework for the use of probabilistic models to describe unique phenomena in a purely objective way. Although Estimating and Choosing was written with geostatistical applications in mind, the approach is of general applicability across the whole spectrum of probabilistic modelling. The only full-fledged treatment of the foundations of practical probability modelling ever written, this book fills an important gap in the literature of probability and statistics.