Gunther Schmidt & Simon Schönrock 
Plant Phenology as a Biomonitor for Climate Change in Germany [PDF ebook] 
A Modelling and Mapping Approach

The investigations refer to the development of plant phenology since the 1960s in Germany. Spatiotemporal trends were assessed by means of regression kriging. It could be shown that there already is a distinct shift of phenological onset towards the beginning of the year of up to two weeks. In future, a shift of up to one month was calculated till 2080. Moreover, a prolongation of the vegetation period of up to three weeks was found. The findings are relevant for the development of mitigation measures to prevent from environmental, agricultural and economic issues due to climate change.

Tabella dei contenuti

1. Background and Goals.- Case Study 1: Phenological trends in Germany.-
Case Study 2: Phenological trends in the federal state of Hesse.