An updated and timely new look at the theory and practice of risk
management
Since the first edition of Risk Modeling, Assessment, and
Management was published, public interest in the field of risk
analysis has grown astronomically. Its adaptation across many
disciplines and its deployment by industry and government agencies
in decision making has led to an unprecedented development of new
theory, methodology, and practical tools.
The Second Edition of this well-regarded reference describes the
state of the art of risk management and its important applications
in such areas as engineering, science, manufacturing, business,
management, and public policy. The author strikes a balance between
the quantitative and the qualitative aspects of risk management,
showing clearly how to quantify risk and construct probability in
conjunction with real-world decision-making problems. At the same
time, he addresses a host of institutional, organizational,
political, and cultural considerations. Incorporating real-world
examples and case studies to illustrate the analytical methods
under discussion, the book presents basic concepts as well as
advanced material, avoiding higher mathematics whenever
possible.
Some key revisions to the Second Edition include:
* A completely updated format with many new examples and
problems
* A new chapter on Risks of Terrorism, including case studies in
transportation, water supply, infrastructure interdependencies,
food safety, and a National Research Council report on
terrorism
* A new chapter on Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management (RFRM),
a technology co-developed by the author and supported by several
case studies and examples
* A new focus on minimizing the high cost associated with today’s
more extensive risk management
Examining timely, multidisciplinary practical applications, this
new edition offers an important resource for industry professionals
as well as advanced graduate students in systems engineering.
Tabella dei contenuti
Preface.
Acknowledgments.
PART I: FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND
MANAGEMENT.
1. The Art and Science of Systems and Risk Analysis.
2. The Role of Modeling in the Risk Analysis Process.
3. Identifying Risk Through Hierarchical Holographic
Modeling.
4. Decision Analysis.
5. Multiobjective Trade-Off Analysis.
6. Defining Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis.
7. Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management.
PART II: ADVANCES IN RISK MODELING, ASSESSMENT, AND
MANAGEMENT.
8. Risk of Extreme Events and the Fallacy of Expected Value.
9. Multiobjective Decision-Tree Analysis.
10. Multiobjective Risk Impact Analysis Method.
11. Statistics of Extremes: Extension of the PMRM.
12. Bayesian Analysis and the Prediction of Chemical
Carcinogenicity.
13. Fault Trees.
14. Multiobjective Statistical Method.
15. Principles and Guidelines for Project Risk Management.
16. Applying Risk Analysis to Space Missions.
17. Risk Modeling, Assess ment, and Management of Terrorism.
18. Case Studies.
Appendix: Optimization Techniques.
Index.
Circa l’autore
YACOV Y. HAIMES, Ph D, is the Lawrence R. Quarles Professor of Systems and Information Engineering and Civil Engineering and Founding Director of the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems established in 1987 at the University of Virginia, Charlottesville.
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