Whether it’s an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or an expected barbecue season that sees record rainfall, forecasts have impacts on us all. But do forecasters tell you all that they know or what they really believe?
When is your gut feeling likely to be better than a computer’s prediction? Can you accurately predict your own emotional reaction to future events like a new job or a new house? And when is a ‘forecast’ not a forecast?
Forewarned will answer these questions, and many more besides, covering a wide range of topics, from business to politics, sport and lotteries to that old perennial, the weather.
Forewarned is a consumer’s guide to prediction, based on the very latest scientific research. By the end of the book you’ll be better placed to make informed decisions in a volatile world. You’ll know when forecasts can be a reliable guide to the vicissitudes and uncertainties of the future – and when they are best ignored.
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Paul Goodwin is an Emeritus Professor at the University of Bath, where he taught and researched forecasting and decision making. He has a Ph D from Lancaster University and an MSc from Warwick University and he has acted as a consultant to both leading companies and government departments. In 2013 he was elected as an Honorary Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters in recognition of his contribution to forecasting.
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