This book provides a quantitative framework for the analysis of conflict dynamics and for estimating the economic costs associated with civil wars. The author develops modified Lotka-Volterra equations to model conflict dynamics, to yield realistic representations of battle processes, and to allow us to assess prolonged conflict traps. The economic costs of civil wars are evaluated with the help of two alternative methods: Firstly, the author employs a production function to determine how the destruction of human and physical capital stocks undermines economic growth in the medium term. Secondly, he develops a synthetic control approach, where the cost is obtained as the divergence of actual economic activity from a hypothetical path in the absence of civil war. The difference between the two approaches gives an indication of the adverse externalities impinging upon the economy in the form of institutional destruction. By using detailed time-series regarding battle casualties, localsocio-economic indicators, and capital stock destruction during the Greek Civil War (1946-1949), a full-scale application of the above framework is presented and discussed.
Table of Content
Preface.- 1 Introduction: Economic Analysis and Civil Wars.- 2 The Greek Civil War 1946-1949: Main Events and Data.- 3 Static Models of Conflict.- 4 Models of Repression and Inclusion.- 5 Dynamic Models of Conflict.- 6 Estimation of Conflict Dynamics.- 7 A Model of Intertemporal Conflict.- 8 The Economic Impact of Civil Wars: A Production Function Approach.- 9 The Comparative Economic Cost of Civil Wars.- 10 A Critical Appraisal.- 11 Data Appendix: Data Sources and Definitions.
About the author
Nicos Christodoulakis, is Professor of Economic Analysis at the Athens University of Economics and Business (AUEB) and Research Associate with the Hellenic Observatory at the London School of Economics. In 2002-2003, he was Minister of Finance in Greece and acting Chairman of the Eurogroup. He has written extensively on growth and economic policy – and on the Greek and the Eurozone crisis in particular. His last book ‘How Crises shaped Economic Ideas and Policies: Wiser after the events?” has been published with Springer.
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