‘In much the same way that Good to Great uncovered hithertohidden secrets of highly successful companies, Navarro’s Always a Winner uses extensive research to reveal theoverriding importance of learning how to forecast and strategicallymanage the business cycle for competitive advantage. In doing so, this book provocatively explores a critical aspect of successfulmanagement virtually untapped by the existing strategy literature.’–Dan Di Micco, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Nucor Steel
‘ Always a Winner is an important and timely guide tothriving in challenging economic times. Prof. Navarro deftlybridges the academic and business communities, showing corporateleaders how to read economic tea-leaves to anticipate businesscycles. His ‘Master Cyclist’ credo offers many practical tips andreal-world case studies for steering companies through turbulenteconomic seas.’ –Mark Greene, Ph.D, Chief Executive Officer, FICO (Fair Isaac Corp.)
‘Navarro’s Always a Winner shows whyforecasting the economy with a ruler can be lethal for corporateexecutives and money managers. He demonstrates how to skillfullyanticipate the ups and downs of the economy and successfullynavigate through them. The current economic crisis clearlydemonstrates why this book is so important to have on yourbookshelf.’ –Mark Zandi, Chief Economist and Cofounder of Moody’s Economy.com
‘Always a Winner is required reading for everyentrepreneur, money manager, and independent investor hoping tooutperform the market and retire one day.’ –Mark T.Brookshire, Founder of Stock Trak.com and Wall Street Survivor.com
‘ Navarro’s wealth of real world examples will show youhow to make both economic recessions and recoveries invaluableallies in executing competitive corporate strategies. A must read!’–Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director, Economic Cycle Research Institute
Why recessions are far more dangerous than any 10competitors
Most companies make a lot of money during economicexpansions-and lose a lot of money during recessions. That is theway it has always been. That is the way it neednot always be.
This book will show you how to ‘always be a winner’ over thecourse of the entire business cycle-not just when economic timesare good. To do this job, this book will arm you with all thestrategies and tactics and forecasting tools you will need toprofitably manage your organization through the business cycleseasons-from the best of boom times to the worst of recessionarytimes.
In this book, you will learn to
* Forecast movements and key recessionary turning points in thebusiness cycle
* Implement a set of powerful ‘battle-tested’ strategies over thecourse of the business cycle
* Rebuild your organization with a strategic business cycleorientation and thereby make it much more recession-resistant andresilient over the longer term
The forecasting tools and management strategies revealed in thisbook have been developed over the last five years by the author-theworld’s leading expert on managing the business cycle forcompetitive advantage.
By learning to strategically manage the business cycle, yourorganization will be able to create a powerful competitive andsustainable advantage over its rivals and thereby find the grailsought by every executive team in the world-superior financialperformance.
In this way, Always a Winner provides you with thein-depth insight and practical advice you need to help your companysurvive and thrive in the increasingly risky conditions of the 21stcentury.
Table of Content
About the Author xiii
Preface xvii
A Big-Picture View of the Always a Winner Organization 1
Chapter 1 Why Recessions are More Dangerous than Any 10 Competitors 3
Chapter 2 What Good to Great and Always a Winner Organizations Have in Common 5
Chapter 3 What are the Three Steps to Becoming an Always a Winner Organization? 13
Chapter 4 How to Strategically Manage Through the Business Cycle Seasons 21
Step I: Becoming Your Own Economic Forecaster 33
Chapter 5 How (and Why) the Business Cycle Cycles 35
Chapter 6 How to Forecast the Business Cycle in Four Easy Pieces 43
Chapter 7 Why the GDP Equation is Your Most Important Forecasting Tool 47
Chapter 8 Why Tracking the Consumer is the Ultimate Confidence Game 55
Chapter 9 Why Taking the Pulse of Business Investment is as Simple as ISM 61
Chapter 10 How Falling Exports Can Flatten an Economy in a Flat World 67
Chapter 11 Why Uncle Sam is the Spender of Last Resort 75
Chapter 12 How Do I Fear Thee, Inflation? Let Me Count the Ways 83
Chapter 13 Why the Bond Market is Not a Casino 89
Chapter 14 Why Forecasting a Recession is No Bull (Market) 95
Chapter 15 How the Corporate Earnings Calendar Literally ‘Guides’ Your Strategy 101
Step II: Always a Winner Strategies through the Business Cycle Seasons 107
Chapter 16 How to Recession-Proof Your Supply Chain 109
Chapter 17 Why Cherry Picking the Talent Pool During Recessions is Your Quality Key 117
Chapter 18 Why Countercyclical Advertising is the Best Way to Build Brand and Market Share 125
Chapter 19 Why Companies Often Price Their Products and Manage Credit Exactly Wrong 133
Chapter 20 How To Not Get Run Over by the Capital Expenditures Bandwagon 143
Chapter 21 Why You Should Buy Low and Sell High over the Stock Market Cycle 151
Chapter 22 How to Minimize Your Capital Financing Costs over the Interest Rate Cycle 161
Step III: Building the Always a Winner Organization 169
Chapter 23 Why Always a Winner Organizations Always Begin with a Strong Business Cycle Management Orientation 171
Chapter 24 How Every Executive Team Can Boost Its Economic and Financial Market Literacy 177
Chapter 25 Why a Facilitative Structure Must Follow Your Business Cycle Management Strategy 185
Chapter 26 Why a Supportive Organizational Culture is Essential to Always Being a Winner 191
Chapter 27 How to Protect Your 401(k) in an Up-and-Down Stock Market 195
Concluding Thoughts 203
Notes 205
Acknowledgements 211
Index 217
About the author
PETER NAVARRO, PHD, is the accomplished author of the bestselling The Coming China Wars, the path-breaking The Well-Timed Strategy, and the investment classic If It’s Raining in Brazil, Buy Starbucks. He is a Professor at the Paul Merage School of Business at the University of California, Irvine, and a regular CNBC contributor. Professor Navarro has been featured on 60 Minutes, and his articles have appeared in a wide range of publications, from Business Week, the Los Angeles Times, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal to the Harvard Business Review, the MIT Sloan Management Review, and the Journal of Business. His free weekly investment newsletter is published at www.peternavarro.com.
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