For decades, the Greater Middle East has been a leading challenge to American foreign policy. This vast region – ranging from North Africa in the west to Afghanistan in the east, and from the borders of Central Asia down to the Horn of Africa in the south – has been a cauldron of turmoil that has affected not just American interests, but generated threats to the American homeland.
The multitude of challenges in this region has led to some confusion. What should be the focus of U.S. policy in the Greater Middle East?
This book explores this state of affairs and its implications by delving deeper into how the current geopolitics of the Greater Middle East came to be. A first few chapters look back to the history of the region and the historic rivalries among Turks, Arabs and Persians up to the end of the Cold War. The book then examines the main current power centers of the region – Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. It then turns to the geopolitical competition among them in recent years, starting with Iran’s efforts to build an 'Arc of Domination’ across the region.
The book covers the advance of Islamists following the Arab Upheavals, the civil war among the Sunnis from 2013 to 2018, America’s pendulum swings with regard to Iran policy, and the reshuffle of the region following Turkey’s turn in a more nationalist direction. Finally, the book ends with an attempt to draw out implications for America’s approach to the geopolitics of the Greater Middle East.
SVANTE E. CORNELL is Research Director of the American Foreign Policy Council’s Central Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington D.C., and a co-founder of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, Sweden. Cornell was educated at the Middle East Technical University and Uppsala University. He formerly served as Associate Professor at Uppsala University and at Johns Hopkins-University-SAIS, and is also a Policy Advisor with the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences.
Spis treści
INTRODUCTION 1
1. ARABS, TURKS AND PERSIANS AND THE DIVIDED UMMAH 7
Geopolitical History in the Muslim World 9
The Divided Ummah: Hanafi, Shia, and Hanbali 13
2. IDEOLOGY AND RELIGION: THE RISE OF POLITICAL ISLAM 21
Ideological Trends in the Modern Muslim World 22
The Rise of Islamism 26
3.GREATER MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICS AND THE COLD WAR 33
The Greater Middle East in the Cold War 36
The U.S. and the Promotion of Islamism 40
The Post-Cold War Greater Middle East:
The Collapse of Arab Powers and Weakening of
American Hegemony 43
4. IRAN, THE PRIME MOVER 49
Iran’s Centrality and Vulnerability 49
Revolutionary ideology 52
Power in the Islamic Republic 56
State within a State: the IRGC and Quds Force 58
5. SAUDI ARABIA AND THE GULF MONARCHIES 63
Arab Rivalries and Saudi Arabia’s Rise 64
The Long 1980s and the Rise of Wahhabism 69
The Rise and Fall of Saudi Islamism 73
6. TURKEY’S ENTRY INTO MIDDLE EAST
GEOPOLITICS 79
Cold War Blues 80
Özal and Reimagining Turkey’s Role in the Region 84
Ideology and Politics in Turkey 90
Political Islam’s Moment 93
7. IRAN’S ARC OF DOMINATION 97
Lebanon and Hezbollah 98
The Syrian Lynchpin 101
Making Iraq Subservient 105
Yemen: Iran’s Underestimated Role 109
8. TURKEY, QATAR, AND THE BROTHERHOOD AXIS 115
The Brotherhood 118
The Rise of Political Islam in Turkey 124
Qatar’s Calculus 127
The AKP’s Foreign Policy 131
A Strange Axis Forms 133
9. THE ARAB UPHEAVALS: ISLAMISTS ADVANCE 135
Tunisia: The Beginnings 136
Egypt: Rise of the Brotherhood 138
Libya: Jostling Begins 143
The Syrian Quagmire 146
Paving the Way for the Sunni Civil War 152
10. THE SUNNI CIVIL WAR, 2013-20 155
The Battle for Egypt 156
Turkish Troubles and Erdogan’s Paranoia 158
The Qatar Crisis: The Sunni Rift Deepens 164
The Anti-Turkish Coalition Emerges 168
The End of the Road 174
11. AMERICA’S DANCE WITH IRAN 175
Obama’s Vision 176
The Iran Deal and Obama’s Deference to Tehran 179
Trump’s Maximum Pressure 184
Biden, and Pendulum Swings Back 188
Known Unknowns: The Future of U.S. Iran Policy 192
12. THE FAILURE OF ISLAMISM IN TURKEY RESHUFFLES THE REGION 195
The Failure of Islamism in Turkey 196
The Rise of Turkish Nationalism 200
New priorities in Turkish Foreign Policy 201
Expanding Turkey’s Footprint in the East 202
Clashing with Iran in Syria and the Caucasus 207
Making up with the Arabs 212
13. DEALING WITH IRAN IN A POST-ISLAMIST MIDDLE EAST? IMPLICATIONS FOR AMERICAN POLICY 219
ABOUT THE AUTHOR 233
O autorze
Svante E. Cornell is Research Director of the American Foreign Policy Council’s Asia-Caucasus Institute in Washington, DC and a co-founder of the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm, Sweden. Cornell was educated at the Middle East Technical University and Uppsala University. He formerly served as Associate Professor at Uppsala University and at Johns Hopkins-University-SAIS, and is also a Policy Advisor with the Jewish Institute for National Security of American and a member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences.
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