The definitive assessment of how wireless communications will evolve over the next 20 years.
Predicting the future is an essential element for almost everyone involved in the wireless industry. Manufacturers predict the future when they decide on product lines to develop or research to undertake, operators when they buy licences and deploy networks, and academics when they set Ph D topics. Wireless Communications: The Future provides a solid, clear and well-argued basis on which to make these predictions.
Starting with a description of the current situation and a look at how previous predictions made in 2000 have fared, the book then provides the contributions of six eminent experts from across the wireless industry. Based on their input and a critical analysis of the current situation, it derives detailed forecasts for 2011 through to 2026. This leads to implications across all of the different stakeholders in the wireless industry and views on key developments.
- Presents clear and unambiguous predictions, not a range of scenarios from which the user has to decide
- Includes chapters covering existing wireless systems which provide solid tutorial material across a wide range of wireless devices
- Offers a range of views of the future from high profile contributors in various areas of the industry and from around the globe, including contributions from Vodafone and Motorola
- Provides a comprehensive guide to current technologies, offering keen analysis of key drivers, end user needs and key economic and regulatory constraints
This book, compiled by a renowned author with a track record of successful prediction, is an essential read for strategists working for wireless manufacturers, wireless operators and device manufacturers, regulators and professionals in the telecoms industry, as well as those studying the topic or with a general interest in the future of wireless communications.
Spis treści
Preface xv
Acknowledgements xvii
About the Author xix
1 Predicting the Future is a Necessary Part of Business 1
2 Previous Predictions have been Accurate 3
2.1 Introduction 3
2.2 There have been Huge Changes in the Telecoms Climate 3
2.3 What we Predicted for the Period 2000–2005 6
2.4 How Well did we do? 7
2.5 Our Predictions for 2005–2010 8
2.6 How Good do these Predictions Look Now? 9
2.7 Implications for Forecasting the Future 9
3 How to put Together a Forecast 11
4 The Current Position 13
4.1 The Value of a Good Understanding of the Starting Position 13
4.2 Mobile Communications 14
4.2.1 Cellular 14
Introduction to Cellular [1–3] 14
2G Cellular 15
3G Cellular 17
Wi Max for Mobile Applications 18
‘4G’ Cellular 19
Convergent Technologies 21
Summary for Cellular 22
4.2.2 Private Mobile Radio 22
Introduction 22
Analogue Communications 23
Digital Communications 23
4.2.3 Mobile Mesh Systems 24
4.2.4 Cognitive Radio 25
4.3 Fixed wireless 27
4.3.1 Introduction 27
4.3.2 Key Drivers for Fixed Wireless 27
4.3.3 Key Competitors to Fixed Wireless 28
4.3.4 Likely Success of Fixed Wireless 28
4.3.5 Enlarging the Market with a Nomadic Offering 29
4.3.6 The Prognosis for Fixed Wireless 29
4.4 Short-range Devices 30
4.4.1 Introduction 30
4.4.2 Overview of the Standards for Short-range Devices 31
4.4.3 Ultra Wideband (UWB) 32
4.4.4 Wireless LANs [5] 33
4.4.5 Blue Tooth [6] 34
4.4.6 Dect 35
4.4.7 Zigbee 35
4.4.8 RFIDs 36
4.4.9 The Prognosis for Short-range Devices 36
4.5 Core Networks 37
4.6 Broadcasting 39
4.6.1 Conventional Broadcasting 39
4.6.2 Mobile Broadcasting 41
4.7 Industry Structure 42
4.8 Summary 42
4.9 Appendix: The Role for OFDM 43
OFDM is Increasingly in Favour 43
A Quick Introduction to OFDM 43
Multipath: the Key Difference between OFDM and SCM 44
Equalisers may become too Complex to be Realisable 45
Problems Specific to OFDM 45
Specific Applications 45
So is OFDM the New ‘Technology of Choice’? 48
References 48
5 End User Demand 49
5.1 Why What the User Wants is Critical 49
5.2 How People React to New Concepts 49
5.3 Changing Patterns of Spending 51
5.4 What they have Today 53
5.5 What they want Now 53
5.6 Security, Privacy and Health Concerns 55
5.7 The Handset Subsidy Problem 56
5.8 In Summary 57
6 Technology Progress 59
6.1 Technology is a Critical Input to any Forecast 59
6.2 Key Technical Fundamentals: The ‘True’ Laws 60
6.3 Key Technical Observations: The ‘Empirical’ Laws 62
6.3.1 Moore’s Law 62
6.3.2 Metcalfe’s Law 63
6.3.3 Gilder’s Law 64
6.3.4 Cooper’s Law 65
6.3.5 Edholm’s Law 67
6.3.6 Growth in Disk Size 68
6.3.7 Goodhart’s Law 70
6.3.8 Laws or Trends? 70
6.4 Technologies on the ‘Radar Screen’ 70
6.4.1 Technologies Enhancing the Efficiency of Transmission 71
Software-defined Radio 71
Smart Antennas 71
Wireless Mesh Networking 72
Interference Cancellation 73
Cognitive Radio 74
6.4.2 Technologies Lowering Cost: Backhaul 74
6.4.3 Technologies Enhancing Interaction with Terminals 76
6.4.4 Technologies Leading to ‘Artificial Intelligence’ 84
6.4.5 Compression Technologies 85
6.5 Technology Prognosis: No Key Breakthroughs 85
6.6 Implications for the Future 85
References 86
7 Major World Events 87
7.1 Introduction 87
7.2 World Events 87
7.3 Events in Related Industries 89
7.4 Summary 90
7.5 The Next Chapters 90
8 Future Military Wireless Solutions 91
Paul S. Cannon and Clive R. Harding
8.1 Introduction 91
8.2 Operational Context 92
8.3 Technical Features Important to Secure and Robust Global Military Communications 93
8.4 New Platforms and Missions: Their Impact on Military Communication Systems 94
8.4.1 Impact of Unmanned Vehicles 94
8.4.2 Impact of High-Altitude Platforms (HAPs) 95
8.4.3 Impact of Future Infantry Soldier Technology 96
8.4.4 Impact of Wireless Sensor Networks 96
8.5 Developments in Military Communications Systems 97
8.5.1 Introduction 97
8.5.2 Very Low-Frequency (VLF) Communications 97
8.5.3 High-Frequency (HF) Communications 98
8.5.4 Terrestrial VHF, UHF and SHF Tactical Communications 99
8.5.5 Satellite Communications 100
8.6 Emerging Communications Techniques 103
8.6.1 Introduction 103
8.6.2 Ad-hoc Networks 103
8.6.3 Disruption-Tolerant Networks (DTN) 103
8.6.4 Software-Defined Radio (SDR) 104
8.6.5 Environmental Modelling for Communications Management 106
8.6.6 Spectrum Management and Utilisation 107
8.6.7 Smart Antennas for Military Communications 109
8.6.8 The Push to Higher RF Frequencies and Laser Communications 109
8.6.9 Ultra Wideband (UWB) Techniques 110
8.6.10 Communications Security 110
8.7 Some Emerging Technologies with Communications Relevance 111
8.7.1 Introduction 111
8.7.2 Beyond Silicon Technologies 111
8.7.3 Potential of Nanotechnology 111
8.7.4 Quantum Cryptography and Quantum Computing 112
8.7.5 Negative Refractive Materials and Their Applications 113
8.7.6 Low-power High-stability Reference Sources 113
8.7.7 Power Sources 113
8.8 The Role for Commercial Off-the-shelf for Military Communications 114
8.9 Summary and Conclusions 114
Acknowledgements 115
References 115
Biographies 115
9 From the Few to the Many: Macro to Micro 117
Peter Cochrane
9.1 In the Beginning 117
9.2 The Need for Planning, Regulation and Control 118
9.3 Some General Trends 120
9.4 What do People Want and Need? 122
9.5 What can People Expect /Have? 123
9.6 Likely Technology Developments 124
9.6.1 Home and Office 124
9.6.2 Manufacturing, Retail and Logistics 126
9.6.3 Logistics of Things and People 126
9.6.4 Parasitic Networks 127
9.6.5 Mobile Sensor Networks 128
9.7 Clusters of People and Things 128
9.8 Finally 129
Biography 131
10 The Role of Ad-hoc Technology in the Broadband Wireless Networks of the Future 133
Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi
10.1 Introduction 133
10.2 The Need for Flexible Wireless Broadband Solutions 134
10.3 Current and Emerging Models of Peer-to-Peer Broadband Connectivity 136
10.3.1 Wireless Home Networks 136
10.3.2 Military Applications 137
10.3.3 Public Safety 137
10.3.4 Private and Public Transportation 138
10.3.5 Metro-area Broadband Networks 139
10.3.6 Mining and Manufacturing 139
10.3.7 Corporate Networks 139
10.3.8 Sensor Networks and Things-to-Things Communication 140
10.4 Enabling the Next Generation of Ad-hoc Connectivity 140
10.5 Types of Ad-hoc Network 142
10.5.1 Autonomous Peer-to-Peer Networks 142
10.5.2 Hybrid Mesh Networks 143
10.6 Integrated Ad-hoc and Wide Area Networks 144
10.6.1 Linking of Ad-hoc Workgroups 144
10.6.2 Extension of carrier broadband networks 144
10.6.3 Enhanced Network Performance 144
10.7 Enabling Technologies 145
10.7.1 Self-configuration and Self-organisation 145
10.7.2 Multi-hopping and Dynamic Routing of Data Packets 145
10.7.3 Smart Sensors and Devices 146
10.7.4 Location-awareness 146
10.7.5 Low-power and Energy-scavenging Technologies 146
10.7.6 End User Control over Preferences and Privacy 147
10.8 New Business and Usage Models 147
10.9 Benefits of Ad-hoc Technology Wireless Carriers and Internet Providers 150
10.9.1 Incumbent Wireless Carriers 150
10.9.2 Cable Broadband Operators 150
10.9.3 ‘Mom and Pop’ Wisps 151
10.9.4 Greenfield Operators 151
10.9.5 Marketers 151
10.10 A Decentralised Future and Boundless Opportunities 152
Reference 152
Biographies 153
11 Interference and Our Wireless Future 155
Dennis A. Roberson
11.1 Introduction 155
11.2 History 156
11.3 Spectrum Scarcity 157
11.4 Regulatory Directions Toward Scarcity Amelioration 157
11.5 Scarcity Amelioration Approaches 162
11.6 Emerging Wireless Communications Devices and Systems 162
References 165
Biography 166
12 Three Ages of Future Wireless Communications 167
Simon Saunders
12.1 Introduction 167
12.2 The Age of Wireless Proliferation: 2007 to 2011 169
12.2.1 Introduction 169
12.2.2 Services and Applications 170
12.2.3 Devices 172
12.2.4 Infrastructure 173
12.2.5 Air Interfaces 173
12.2.6 Spectrum 174
12.3 The Age of Wireless Similarity: 2012 to 2016 175
12.3.1 Introduction 175
12.3.2 Services and Applications 175
12.3.3 Devices 176
12.3.4 Infrastructure 176
12.3.5 Air Interfaces 177
12.3.6 Spectrum 178
12.4 The Age of Wireless Mundanity: 2017 to 2026 179
12.4.1 Introduction 179
12.4.2 Services and Applications 179
12.4.3 Devices 180
12.4.4 Infrastructure 180
12.4.5 Air Interfaces 181
12.4.6 Spectrum 181
12.5 Conclusions and Summary 182
Reference 183
Biography 184
13 Mobile Cellular Radio Technology Disruption 185
Stephen Temple CBE
13.1 Extrapolating from the Past 25 Years of Public Mobile Radio 185
13.2 The Law of Large Network Momentum 187
13.3 Third-generation W-CDMA Future 188
13.4 Fourth-generation Technology 190
13.5 Where does this Leave the Switch-off of GSM? 192
13.6 The 3G Cellular Radio Network Landscape Ten Years from now 194
13.7 Convergence as a Disruptive Force 195
13.7.1 Convergence: Mobile and Broadcasting 195
13.7.2 Convergence: Internet and Telephone Services 197
13.7.3 Convergence and the ‘Battle for the Home’ 198
Broadband Heavy-user Homes 200
Broadband Light-user Homes 202
Homes with no DSL Connection 203
13.7.4 Convergence and the Evolution of Mobile Handsets 203
13.7.5 Summary Impact of Convergence as a Disruptive Force 204
13.8 The Blindside Forces of Disruption 205
13.8.1 Governments 205
13.8.2 Regulatory Loose Cannons 206
13.8.3 Disruptive Competitors 207
13.8.4 Disruptive Suppliers 207
13.8.5 Gyrating Financial Markets 208
13.8.6 Unpredictable Customers 208
13.8.7 Disruptive Technologies 209
13.8.8 The Global Perspective 209
13.8.9 Summary Vision of the ‘Blindside’ Forces 210
13.9 Conclusions 210
Biography 211
14 Assimilating the Key Factors 213
14.1 Introduction 213
14.2 Summary of the Current Position 213
14.3 Summary of End User Demand 214
14.4 Summary from Technology Advances Section 214
14.5 Summary from the Contributors 215
Paul Cannon 215
Peter Cochrane 216
Gary Grube and Hamid Ahmadi 216
Dennis Roberson 216
Simon Saunders 217
Stephen Temple 217
14.6 Key Factors brought out by the Contributors 218
14.6.1 Areas not Included in Previous Discussion 218
Connectivity 218
Backhaul 219
Applications 219
Technology 219
Regulation 219
14.6.2 Areas of Disagreement 219
14.7 Reaching a Verdict on the Areas of Disagreement 220
14.8 Drawing these Key Factors Together 221
15 The Future Roadmap 223
15.1 Introduction 223
15.2 Predictions for 2011 223
15.3 Predictions for 2016 227
15.4 Predictions for 2021 232
15.5 Predictions for 2026 233
15.6 Key New Applications 235
15.7 Key New Technologies 236
15.8 Key Changes in Networks 237
15.9 Major Growth Areas 238
15.10 Areas we Predict Will not be Successful 238
15.11 Implications for Stakeholders 239
Manufacturers 239
Operators 239
Service Providers 240
Regulators 240
Academics and Researchers 240
15.12 Differences from the Prediction Made in 2000 241
15.13 The Future in a Page 243
15.14 … And the Elevator Pitch 244
List of Acronyms 245
Index 249
O autorze
William Webb is Head of R&D and Senior Technologist, Ofcom, UK. William is a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering, and has worked in the wireless communications industry since his graduation in 1989. William has published over 60 papers in various journals, chairs some six conferences a year, including the 3GSM Congress and the Blue Tooth Congress, and speaks at many more.
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