Since its deregulation in 1978, the U.S. commercial air carrier industry has been characterized by boom-to-bust cycles. The volatility that was associated with these cycles was thought by many to be a structural feature of an industry that was capital intensive but cash poor. However the great re-cession of 2007-09 marked a fundamental change in the operations and finances of U.S Airlines. Air carriers fine-tuned their business models to minimize losses by lowering operating costs, eliminating unprofitable routes, and grounding older, less fuel efficient aircraft. To increase operating revenues, carriers initiated new services that customers were willing to purchase and started charging separately for services that were historically bundled in the price of a ticket. The industry experienced an unprecedented period of consolidation with four major mergers in five years. These changes along with capacity discipline exhibited by carriers have resulted in a fifth consecutive year of profitability for the industry in 2015. Looking ahead there is optimism that the industry has been trans-formed from that of a boom-to-bust cycle to one of sustainable profits. This book examines data, trends and accuracy of federal aviation forecasts.
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