Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and
Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of
books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and
technology management as this discipline was emerging. The
new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in
the context of business organizations that now place a greater
emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of
development. The scope of this edition has broadened to
include management of technology content that is relevant to now to
executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the
technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition
is reputed for.
Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott
Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the
innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the
Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including
process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that
has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology
managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from
various industries that show how technology management is applied
in the real world.
Cuprins
Chapter 1. Introduction.
1.1 About this Book.
1.2 Technology and Society.
1.3 Management and the Future.
1.4 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 2. Technology Forecasting.
2.1 What is Technology Forecasting?
2.2 Methodological Foundations.
2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods.
2.4 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 3. Managing the Forecasting Project.
3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project.
3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast.
3.3 Team Organization, Management and Communications.
3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time.
3.5 Project Scheduling.
3.6 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 4. Exploring.
4.1 Establishing the Context – The TDS.
4.2 Monitoring.
4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity.
4.4 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 5. Gathering and Using Information.
5.1 Expert Opinion.
5.3 Structuring The Search.
5.4 Preparing Search Results.
5.5 Using Search Results.
5.6 Developing Science, Technology and Social Indicators.
5.7 Communicating Search Results.
5.8 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 6. Analyzing Phase.
6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods.
6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions.
6.3 Growth Models.
6.4 Simulation.
6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation.
6.6 System Dynamics.
6.7 Gaming.
6.8 Software Suggestions.
References.
Chapter 7. Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis.
7.1 Uncertainty.
7.2 Scenarios.
7.3 Examples and Applications.
7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques.
7.5 Conclusions.
References.
Chapter 8. Economic and Market Analysis.
8.1 The Context.
8.2 Forecasting the Market.
8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context.
8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context.
8.5 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 9. Impact Assessment.
9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting.
9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology.
9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment.
9.4 Impact Identification.
9.5 Impact Analysis.
9.6 Impact Evaluation.
9.7 Conclusion.
References.
Chapter 10. Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis.
10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices.
10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis.
10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty.
10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase.
References.
Chapter 11. Implementing the Technology.
11.1 Forecasting Continues.
11.2 Implementation Issues.
11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation.
11.4 Selecting From Alternative Implementations of the Technology.
11.5 Technology Roadmapping.
11.6 When Plans and Forecasts Fail.
11.7 Summary and Concluding Observations.
References.
Chapter 12. Managing the Present From the Future.
12.1 The Overall Approach.
12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques.
12.3 Alternative perspectives.
12.4 Learning From Past Forecasts and Assessments.
12.5 Visions.
12.6 A Final Word.
References.
Chapter 13. Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells.
13.1 Framing the Case Study.
13.2 Methods.
13.3 The Rest of the Story.
References.
Despre autor
ALAN THOMAS ROPER (retired) was a professor at Rose-Hulman
Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the past
editor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal and
the past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studies
at Rose-Hulman.
SCOTT W. CUNNINGHAM obtained a MSc in public policy from
the Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science,
technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. He
is currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in the
Department of Technology, Policy, and Management at Delft
University of Technology.
ALAN L. PORTER has led development of ‘technology
opportunity analysis’ and mining electronic, bibliographic data
sources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holds
an MA in psychology and a Ph D in engineering psychology, both from
UCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development for
Search Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia.
THOMAS W. MASON was the founding head of the Engineering
Management Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/msem). While on a
three-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and CEO of a
140-person network management systems business.
FREDERICK A. ROSSINI (retired) is a former provost at
George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.
JERRY BANKS is Professor Emeritus, Department of
Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology
in Atlanta, Georgia.
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