Sadly enough, war, conflicts and terrorism appear to stay with us in the 21st century. But what is our outlook on new methods for preventing and ending them? Present-day hard- and software enables the development of large crisis, conflict, and conflict management databases with many variables, sometimes with automated updates, statistical analyses of a high complexity, elaborate simulation models, and even interactive uses of these databases.
In this book, these methods are presented, further developed, and applied in relation to the main issue: the resolution and prevention of intra- and international conflicts. Conflicts are a worldwide phenomenon. Therefore, internationally leading researchers from the USA, Austria, Canada, Germany, New Zealand and Switzerland have contributed.
Cuprins
I.- I.- Conflict Resolution by Democracies and Dictatorships: Are Democracies Better in Resolving Conflicts?.- Trade Liberalization and Political Instability in Developing Countries.- Computer Assisted Early Warning – the FAST Example.- Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Developing an Indicators-Based User Friendly Risk Assessment and Early Warning Capability.- The Confman.2002 Data Set Developing Cases and Indices of Conflict Management to Predict Conflict Resolution.- II.- II.- Events, Patterns, and Analysis Forecasting International Conflict in the Twenty-First Century.- Forecasting Conflict in the Balkans using Hidden Markov Models.- Neural Computation for International Conflict Management.- Modeling International Negotiation Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches.- Machine Learning Methods for Better Understanding, Resolving, and Preventing International Conflicts.- III.- III.- New Methods for Conflict Data.- Information, Power, and War.- Modeling Effects of Emotion and Personality on Political Decision-Making.- Peacemaker 2020 A System for Global Conflict Analysis and Resolution; A Work of Fiction and A Research Challenge.
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