Uri Bar-Joseph 
The Watchman Fell Asleep [PDF ebook] 
The Surprise of Yom Kippur and Its Sources

Acknowledgments
Introduction
Part I. The Egyptian War Decision and Its Implementation
1. The War Decision
2. Planning the Next War: Past Experience and the Main Problems

Problem I: The Crossing of the Canal

Problem II: Egyptian Air Inferiority

Problem III: Inferiority in Armored Fighting

3. The Egyptian Deception Plan

i. The Role of Deception in Egyptian War Planning

ii. Passive Deception

iii. Active Deception

iv. Assessment of the Egyptian Deception

4. The Egyptian-Syrian War Coordination
Part II. Israel Prepares for War
5. The Balance of Forces—the Israeli View
6. The Intelligence Conception and Its Sources

i. The Conception

ii. The Empirical Evidence

7. The Strategic Warning and Its Role in Israel’s War Plans
8. The Next War Scenarios
9. The War Estimate: October 1972–August 1973

i. October 1972–April 1973

ii. April–May 1973

iii. June–August 1973

Part III. The Dynamics of an Intelligence Fiasco
10. August–September 1973
11. Monday, October 1, 1973
12. Tuesday, October 2, 1973
13. Wednesday, October 3, 1973
14. Thursday, October 4, 1973
15. Friday, October 5, 1973
16. Saturday, October 6, 1973, 0400 –1400
17. Surprise

i. The Cabinet

ii. The Canal Front

iii. The Golan Front

iv. The Air Force

18. The Cost of Being Caught Unprepared

i. The Material Losses

ii. The Psychological Impact of Surprise

19. The Causes of the Intelligence Failure

i. Obstacles Unique to the Warning-Response Process

ii. Bureaucratic Obstacles

iii. Groupthinking

iv. Psychological Obstacles at the Individual Level

v. The Human Factor

Notes
Bibliography
Index

Uri Bar-Joseph is Professor of International Relations at Haifa University. He is the author of Intelligence Intervention in the Politics of Democratic States: The United States, Israel, and Britain and The Best of Enemies: Israel and Transjordan in the War of 1948.