Board on Environmental Change and Society & Committee on Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Social and Political Stresses 
Climate and Social Stress [PDF ebook] 
Implications for Security Analysis

Climate change can reasonably be expected to increase the frequency and intensity of a variety of potentially disruptive environmental eventsslowly at first, but then more quickly. It is prudent to expect to be surprised by the way in which these events may cascade, or have far-reaching effects. During the coming decade, certain climate-related events will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global systems to manage; these may have global security implications. Although focused on events outside the United States, Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis recommends a range of research and policy actions to create a whole-of-government approach to increasing understanding of complex and contingent connections between climate and security, and to inform choices about adapting to and reducing vulnerability to climate change.