автор: Philip E. Tetlock

Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert o …

Der Psychologe und Politikwissenschaftler Philip Tetlock gibt in seinem leichtverständlichen Wissenschafts-Sachbuch ›Superforecasting. Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose‹ eine Anleitung für treffsicher …

From one of the world’s most highly regarded social scientists comes a seminal book on forecasting that shows, for the first time, how we can all get better at making predictions. In Superforecasting …

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Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We’ve combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and se …

Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bo …