This book provides a blend of quantitative and qualitative approaches to decision making, while also bridging the gap between the theory of how to make good decisions versus how people actually make decisions. The authors present the tools and techniques of decision analysis to learn how to become a FOCCUSSED decision maker:
- Identify and properly F rame the decision or problem at hand
- Specify the goals, O bjectives, and values that you are trying to achieve
- Develop creative, meaningful C hoices from among which you can choose
- Evaluate the C onsequences of selecting each alternative using your goals, objectives, and values
- Think about the key U ncertainties that could impact the decision
- Understand the S waps and trade-offs that you are willing to make
- Develop an approach for implementing your S olution
- E licit the data you’ll need from a variety of sources
- and D isseminate and communicate your decisions to others.
Preferences–what we prefer, what meets our goals and objectives, and the recognition that preferences are personal to the one making the decision; A
lternatives–the choices, options, or courses of action that we have, and over which we have some degree of control; and I
nformation–what we know about the situation, what we don’t know, how we connect choices to outcomes, and how we deal with uncertainty. Key components of good decision-making include how to define your goals and objectives, how to incorporate uncertainties that we all face, and how to develop better alternatives, all of which are discussed. Sophisticated techniques are presented in a way that is accessible to the average decision maker. Probability theory is utilized to improve decisions, and uncertainties are captured in decision trees. Risk avoidance, risk transfer, and risk mitigation are also discussed. Readers will gain a clear understanding of how to articulate the goals and objectives that should be the focal point of any decision.
Innehållsförteckning
Introduction.- Framing the Decision.- Understanding Objectives and Values.- Creating Choices.- Identifying Consequences.- Incorporating Uncertainty.- Making Swaps and Trade-offs.- Selecting Solutions.- Eliciting Data: Making Your Decision-Making Processes More Productive.- Disseminating and Communicating Your Decisions.- FOCCUSSED Decision Making Wrap-Up.
Om författaren
Terry A. Bresnick is President of Innovative Decision Analysis and a co-founder of Innovative Decisions, Inc. He has had more than 45 years of experience in applying decision analysis to complex problems in government and industry. As a former officer in the U.S. Army and currently as a consultant in the private sector, he has demonstrated his expertise in the areas of decision analysis; risk analysis; strategic planning; resource allocation and budgetary analysis; evaluation of competing alternatives; cost-benefit analysis; and business area analysis. He has facilitated more than 1, 000 decision conferences and/or workshops for government and private sector clients. He has been an Assistant Professor of Systems and Decision Analysis at the U.S. Military Academy and is an Adjunct Instructor at the University of Arkansas. Terry is also a Certified Financial Planner, a Certified Analytics Professional, a Fellow of the Society of Decision Professionals, and a registered professional engineer. He received a B.S. in Engineering from the U.S. Military Academy, an M.B.A. in Decision Science from George Mason University, Degree of Engineer, Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University and an M.S. in Statistics from Stanford University. Terry is a retired Lieutenant Colonel from the U.S. Army.
Omar Periu is a successful entrepreneur, an author, and an award-winning speaker who has spent more than a decade educating salespeople, leaders and entrepreneurs world-wide. He has delivered more than 5, 000 seminars, workshops, and training programs and has trained more than two million people in more than two-thirds of the Fortune 500 companies. His articles are published in Success Magazine, Sales and Management Magazine, Selling Power Magazine, Martial Arts Success Magazine, and more. He has authored several books including The One Minute Meeting, From Management to Leadership, Get Real Get Rich, and Investigative Selling. He has been presented with the Businessman of the Year Award by the Florida Business Advisory Council. He is on the Board of Directors to Wayne Huizenga’s School of Entrepreneurs and Nova Southeastern University. He is a member of the National Speakers Association and has been inducted into the prestigious International Platform Association.
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