Praise for Endgame
‘This is an extremely powerful, sobering, well-written and
highly accessible book. It will demonstrate to you why there are no
painless solutions to the mounting debt problems around the
world–something that too many people are yet to realize. It
will take you on a well-documented journey through the debt
supercycle, making stops around the world and at critical
junctures. And it is a must-read for anyone wishing to understand
the global debt dynamics and ways to protect against its bad
consequences.’
–Mohamed A. El-Erian, CEO, PIMCO, and author of When
Markets Collide
‘No one has thought more creatively about the economy. Mauldin’s
weekly newsletter is a must-read, and his book is even more
important if you want to understand a rapidly changing
world.’
–Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the House of
Representatives
‘Successful investors explore all possibilities. You should read
this book so you can succeed in case the Endgame is our
future.’
–Jim Rogers, author of A Gift to My Children
‘I read everything John Mauldin writes. He travels the world and
shares his financial stories like a good friend sharing a drink.
Mauldin is that rarity–a skeptical optimist–who calls ’em
straight and rewards his clients and fans.’
–Rich Karlgaard, Publisher and Columnist, Forbes
magazine
‘There’s clearly something important going on in the world
economy. Something big. Something powerful and dangerous. But
something as yet undefined and uncertain. We are all feeling our
way around in the dark, trying to figure out what it is. John
Mauldin must have night vision glasses. He does an excellent job of
seeing the obstacles. You should read this book before you knock
over a lamp and stumble over the furniture.’
–William Bonner, President and CEO, Agora Inc., and
author of Dice Have No Memory and Empire of Debt
‘Endgame is not only a highly readable and informative account
of the causes of the recent global economic and financial meltdown,
but it also provides investors with a concrete investment strategy
from which they can benefit while this final act in financial
history is being played out.’
–Marc Faber, Managing Director, Marc Faber, Ltd., and
Editor, Gloom, Boom & Doom Report
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Acknowledgments xiii
Introduction: Endgame 1
Part One: The End of the Debt Supercycle 11
Chapter 1: The Beginning of the End 15
Chapter 2: Why Greece Matters 31
Chapter 3: Let’s Look at the Rules 45
Chapter 4: The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent
Recessions 73
Chapter 5: This Time Is Different 91
Chapter 6: The Future of Public Debt: An Unsustainable Path
109
Chapter 7: The Elements of Deflation 133
Chapter 8: Inflation and Hyperinflation 157
Part Two: A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First?
175
Chapter 9: The United States: The Mess We Find Ourselves In
181
Chapter 10: The European Periphery: A Modern-Day Gold Standard
215
Chapter 11: Eastern European Problems 233
Chapter 12: Japan: A Bug in Search of a Windshield 247
Chapter 13: The United Kingdom: How to Quietly Inflate Away Your
Debt 261
Chapter 14: Australia: Could It Follow in Ireland’s Footsteps?
273
Chapter 15: Unintended Consequences: Loose Monetary Policies and
Emerging Markets 283
Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame 293
Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts 297
Notes 301
About the Authors 309
Index 311
เกี่ยวกับผู้แต่ง
JOHN MAULDIN is a renowned financial expert, a multiple New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. His weekly e-newsletter, Thoughts From The Frontline, was one of the first publications to provide investors with free, unbiased information and guidance. Today, it is one of the most widely distributed investment newsletters in the world, translated into Chinese, Spanish and Italian. He is regularly seen on TV and in national print media. President of Millennium Wave Investments, he is the father of seven children (five adopted) and lives in Dallas, Texas.
JONATHAN TEPPER is the founder and Chief Editor of Variant Perception, a macroeconomic research group catering to hedge funds and high-net-worth individuals.