Peter Meier 
The Economy as an Oscillating System [PDF ebook] 
Lessons Learned – Insights – Forecasts

Is it possible to forecast economic crises?
Economic researchers have been grappling with this topic for generations. The outcome of all their efforts is a large number of to some extent contradictory theories. Regarding the economy as a living – pulsating – system, which organises itself and is in constant interaction with its environment, provides extensive insights and forms the basis for this book.
The author Peter Meier presents a system that enables demand for capital goods to be forecast quite reliably up to eighteen months into the future, based on global economic indicators. In addition, the author establishes ten assumptions for economic forecasting that can be checked periodically. They can be used to gauge the approximate timing of an impending global economic crisis by more than a year in advance.