Indonesia’s gross domestic product growth rate declined significantly after the Asian financial crisis (AFC) of 1997–1998. The country’s potential and balance-of-payments growth rates are only about 5.5% and 3%, respectively. One important reason is that the country’s industrialization pace declined after the AFC. Today, Indonesia is still exporting many unprocessed natural resources and simple manufactures (not complex products) with a low income elasticity of demand. This report analyzes how Indonesia’s manufacturing sector could diversify and upgrade during 2020–2024 and beyond. This is essential if Indonesia is to attain upper middle-income status as soon as possible. Policy makers and the private sector need to collaborate to identify the coordination failures that hamper the discovery of those products that Indonesia could successfully produce and export. These must be complex products with a high income elasticity of demand. The report proposes a number of policies to expedite this process.
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