Robert G. Cowell & Philip Dawid 
Probabilistic Networks and Expert Systems [PDF ebook] 
Exact Computational Methods for Bayesian Networks

WINNER OF THE 2001 DEGROOT PRIZE!Probabilistic expert systems are graphical networks that support the modelling of uncertainty and decisions in large complex domains, while retaining ease of calculation. Building on original research by the authors over a number of years, this book gives a thorough and rigorous mathematical treatment of the underlying ideas, structures, and algorithms, emphasizing those cases in which exact answers are obtainable. It covers both the updating of probabilistic uncertainty in the light of new evidence, and statistical inference, about unknown probabilities or unknown model structure, in the light of new data. The careful attention to detail will make this work an important reference source for all those involved in the theory and applications of probabilistic expert systems.This book was awarded the first De Groot Prize by the International Society for Bayesian Analysis for a book making an important, timely, thorough, and notably original contribution to the statistics literature.