David J. Lynn 
Active Private Equity Real Estate Strategy [PDF ebook] 

Preface ix
Disclaimer xiii
Acknowledgments xv
About the Authors xvii
PART ONE Market Analysis and Forecasts 1
CHAPTER 1 Overview of the U.S. Real Estate Market 3
Tim Wang and David Lynn
CHAPTER 2 Forecasting the U.S. Market 19
David Lynn
CHAPTER 3 Recession Simulation and Its Effects on Real Estate 25
Tim Wang, Alison Sauer, and David Lynn
CHAPTER 4 Subprime Fallout: The Impact on Commercial Real Estate 41
Tim Wang and David Lynn
CHAPTER 5 Capital Markets: Dramatic Shifts and Opportunities 47
David Lynn and Tim Wang
CHAPTER 6 The Bid-Ask Problem and Game Theory 53
Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, and David Lynn
PART TWO Active Strategies 67
CHAPTER 7 Residential Land Investment 69
Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn
CHAPTER 8 The U.S. Hotel Market and Strategy 103
Tim Wang, Matson Holbrook, and David Lynn
CHAPTER 9 Global Gateway Industrial Market Investment 125
Bohdy Hedgcock and David Lynn
CHAPTER 10 The Opportunity in Senior Housing 159
Tim Wang and David Lynn
CHAPTER 11 Active Portfolio Management Using Modern Portfolio Theory 187
David Lynn and Yusheng Hao
CHAPTER 12 Derivatives in Private Equity Real Estate 217
Jeff Organisciak, Tim Wang, and David Lynn
CHAPTER 13 Opportunities in Infrastructure Investment 239
David Lynn and Matson Holbrook
APPENDIX A Typical Land Development Pro Forma Analysis–Three Scenarios 247
APPENDIX B U.S. Hotel Chain Scales 253
APPENDIX C Modern Portfolio Theory in Real Estate Portfolio Analytics 257
APPENDIX D Commercial Real Estate Indexes 259
APPENDIX E Example NPI Forecast Methodology 263
Selected Bibliography 265
Index 267

DAVID J. LYNN, PHD, is Managing Director and Head of ING Clarion Partners’ Research & Investment Strategy Group. He is also a member of the Investment Committee as well as the Operating Committee of ING Clarion Partners. Lynn is a Counselor of Real Estate (CRE), a Certified Portfolio and Investment Manager (CPIM), a Chartered Management Analyst (CMA), a Certified Planner (AICP), and a Homer Hoyt Fellow. Lynn earned his Ph D in financial economics from the London School of Economics where he also earned a master of science degree specializing in finance. He also earned an MBA from the Sloan School of Business, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
TIM WANG, PHD, is Head of Macroeconomic Analysis and Strategy at ING Clarion. He has an MBA from New York University and a Ph D from the University of Georgia.
MATSON HOLBROOK is a former senior associate at ING Clarion. He holds an MS in real estate from New York University and a BS in cartography and geographic information systems (GIS) from the University of Wisconsin.
BOHDY HEDGCOCK is an Associate at ING Clarion. He holds a master’s in urban planning from the University of Colorado.
JEFF ORGANISCIAK is a Senior Analyst at ING Clarion. He graduated from the University of Pennsylvania with a BA in economics and political science.
ALISON SAUER is an Analyst at ING Clarion. She is a graduate of Tufts University where she earned a BS in mathematics.
YUSHENG HAO is an Analyst at ING Clarion. He holds an MS in financial engineering from Baruch College, CUNY.