2000 to 2010 was a remarkable decade for real estate. It started
with the dot.com bubble and ended with the putative recovery from
the Great Financial Crisis. The period in-between featured the
world’s first coordinated real estate boom and slump. This book is
based on a series of briefings on the relationship between macro
economic events and real estate markets in the era of globalisation
that covered the period. Collectively they offer unique insights,
new ideas and practical approaches to real estate economics,
grounded in the day-to-day realities of investment, development and
fund management operations in a leading international property
company.
All the briefings are based on research conducted by a
sophisticated in-house research team with expertise in
macroeconomics, urban economics, financial economics and
econometrics, led by a well- known specialist in the field. The
topics highlight the relationship between real estate markets and
global economic and political events – an area not well
covered by academic journals.
A compelling introduction considers the dramatic boom and slump
in real estate values that led up to the Great Financial Crisis.
The briefings are then presented, grouped into broad themes: macro
economics and real estate; GDP, recessions and inflation; REITs;
construction; Asia; retail, offices and housing markets; the
formation of investment yields. A final chapter considers the
medium-term future for real estate in the context of the ongoing
financial crisis.
Topics span the key sectors of office, retail and residential
real estate in over 40 countries, with a focus on private sector
investment, development and management. The perspective is long
term, reflecting Grosvenor’s unique position in real estate as a
privately owned group.
The author provides a commentary on each topic, giving context
to the research and the implications for strategy, drawing out two
unifying themes: the effect of globalisation; and the importance of
macro economics and geo-politics in real estate research.
Together, the briefings offer a penetrating analysis of real
estate markets in the era of globalisation and financial crises.
The era of crises is far from over, and Real Estate and
Globalisation provides invaluable insights for property
professionals worldwide – developers, occupiers, investment
analysts and planners – on the nature of the processes that
create such intense property market volatility. The book is also a
unique source of guidance on practical property research for final
year undergraduates and postgraduates on property courses, as well
in geography, planning, architecture, and construction.
Mục lục
Introduction: The Housing Economy and the Credit Crunch
The Irish Example
International Historical Housing Market Context
Dynamics of the Housing Market
Housing Market and the Economy
Origins and Impact of Credit Crunch
Objectives and Structure of Book
The Housing Boom, the Bust and US Housing Policy
House Prices from 1995 to Present
Housing Reforms for the Future
Housing Bubbles and Foreclosures that Follow: The Case of Las Vegas
Data and Definition of Property Flipping
Anatomy of Boom Bust Market Dynamics
Foreclosure Activity after the Bubble Burst
Concluding Thoughts
Unemployment Risk, Homeownership and Housing Wealth: Lessons from the Bubble Aftermath in Japan
Housing Bubble and Burst in Japan
Unemployment Risk and Homeownership
Housing Wealth and Consumption
Conclusion
Appendices: Details of Statistical Analysis
The Changing Nature of Household Demand and Housing Market Trends in China
Introduction to the Housing Market
Population Growth Hypothesis
Income Growth Hypothesis
Monetary Policy Hypothesis
Conclusions
The Structural Sustainability of Home Ownership in Australia
Australia’s Housing System
Future Projections of Home Ownership and Sustainability
Conclusions
Impacts on Wealth and Debt of Changes in the Danish Financial Framework over a Housing Cycle
Dynamics of Recent Danish Housing Market Cycles
Changing Structure of Owner-Occupation
Changing Mortgage Finance and Indebtedness
The Financial Stability of Owner Occupied Households
Conclusions
Market Stability, Housing Finance and Home Ownership in Germany
Characteristics of the German Housing Market
German Housing Price Trends: An International Comparison
Housing Demand and Housing Investment
The Contribution of the Financing System
The Impact of the Financial Crisis on the German Housing Market
High Down Payment Constraints and Stability: Contradicting Aims? The role of the Savings Behaviour
Conclusion and Outlook
The Responsiveness of New Supply to House Prices: A Perspective from the Spanish Housing Market
Housing Supply Trends
Spanish Housing Market Cycle Pre and Post the Financial Crisis
Estimation of the Supply Elasticity of New Houses
Summary and Conclusion
Appendices: Details of Statistical Analysis
The UK Housing Market Cycle and the Role of Planning: the Policy Challenge following the Financial Crisis
Housing Market Context
Anatomy of the Housing Market Boom and Bust
Evolution of the Planning Framework in UK
Recent Planning Policies
The Planning Policy Consequences of the Recession and Beyond
New Planning Agenda
Conclusions
Developments in the Role of Social Housing in Europe
Looking Back: Social Housing and the Welfare State in Europe
Outcomes
Future Development
Conclusion
Delivering Affordable Housing in the UK
Historic Social Housing Context in Scotland
Background to the Current Scottish Affordability Challenge
Assessing the Emerging Models
Concluding Discussion
The UK Private Rented Sector as a Source of Affordable Accommodation
The Private Rented Sector within the Housing System
Potential Policy Developments
Potential Attraction of Large Investors
Summary and Conclusions
Conclusions: The Challenges Ahead
The Credit Crunch
Commonalities and Challenges
The Future
Concluding Remarks
References
Giới thiệu về tác giả
Dr Richard Barkham MRICS, Group Research Director, Grosvenor, and a Director of Grosvenor Fund Management, heads a global research team of ten full time real estate economists. He has an extensive track record of highly cited real estate research and is a regular presenter at major conferences on real estate trends.
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