Whether man-made or naturally occurring, large-scale disasters can cause fatalities and injuries, devastate property and communities, savage the environment, impose significant financial burdens on individuals and firms, and test political leadership. Moreover, global challenges such as climate change and terrorism reveal the interdependent and interconnected nature of our current moment: what occurs in one nation or geographical region is likely to have effects across the globe. Our information age creates new and more integrated forms of communication that incur risks that are difficult to evaluate, let alone anticipate. All of this makes clear that innovative approaches to assessing and managing risk are urgently required.
When catastrophic risk management was in its inception thirty years ago, scientists and engineers would provide estimates of the probability of specific types of accidents and their potential consequences. Economists would then propose risk management policies based on those experts’ estimates with little thought as to how this data would be used by interested parties. Today, however, the disciplines of finance, geography, history, insurance, marketing, political science, sociology, and the decision sciences combine scientific knowledge on risk assessment with a better appreciation for the importance of improving individual and collective decision-making processes.
The essays in this volume highlight past research, recent discoveries, and open questions written by leading thinkers in risk management and behavioral sciences. The Future of Risk Management provides scholars, businesses, civil servants, and the concerned public tools for making more informed decisions and developing long-term strategies for reducing future losses from potentially catastrophic events.
Contributors : Mona Ahmadiani, Joshua D. Baker, W. J. Wouter Botzen, Cary Coglianese, Gregory Colson, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Nate Dieckmann, Robin Dillon, Baruch Fischhoff, Jeffrey A. Friedman, Robin Gregory, Robert W. Klein, Carolyn Kousky, Howard Kunreuther, Craig E. Landry, Barbara Mellers, Robert J. Meyer, Erwann Michel-Kerjan, Robert Muir-Wood, Mark Pauly, Lisa Robinson, Adam Rose, Paul J. H. Schoemaker, Paul Slovic, Phil Tetlock, Daniel Västfjäll, W. Kip Viscusi, Elke U. Weber, Richard Zeckhauser.
قائمة المحتويات
Introduction
—Howard Kunreuther, Robert J. Meyer, and Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan
PART I. BEHAVIORAL FACTORS INFLUENCING DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
Chapter 1. The Arithmetic of Compassion and the Future of Risk Management
—Paul Slovic and Daniel Västfjäll
Chapter 2. ‘Risk as Feelings’ and ‘Perception Matters’: Psychological Contributions on Risk, Risk-Taking, and Risk Management
—Elke U. Weber
Chapter 3. Risk-Based Thinking
—Baruch Fischhoff
Chapter 4. Structured Empirical Analysis of Decisions Under Natural Hazard Risk
—Craig E. Landry, Gregory Colson, and Mona Ahmadiani
Chapter 5. Mixing Rationality and Irrationality in Insurance Demand and Supply
—Mark Pauly
Chapter 6. The Disaster Cycle: What We Do Not Learn from Experience
—Robert J. Meyer
PART II. IMPROVING RISK ASSESSMENT
Chapter 7. Using Models to Set a Baseline and Measure Progress in Reducing Disaster Casualties
—Robert Muir-Wood
Chapter 8. Learning from All Types of Near-Misses
—Robin Dillon
Chapter 9. Managing Systemic Industry Risk: The Need for Collective Leadership
—Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Chapter 10. Measuring Economic Resilience: Recent Advances and Future Priorities
—Adam Rose
PART III. DEVELOPING BETTER RISK COMMUNICATION STRATEGIES
Chapter 11. Improving Stakeholder Engagement for Upstream Risks
—Robin Gregory and Nate Dieckmann
Chapter 12. Improving the Accuracy of Geopolitical Risk Assessments
—Barbara A. Mellers, Philip E. Tetlock, Joshua D. Baker, Jeffrey A. Friedman, and Richard Zeckhauser
Chapter 13. Efficient Warnings, Not ‘Wolf or Puppy’ Warnings
—Lisa A. Robinson, W. Kip Viscusi, and Richard Zeckhauser
PART IV. ROLE OF RISK MITIGATION, RISK-SHARING, AND INSURANCE
Chapter 14. Threats to Insurability
—Carolyn Kousky
Chapter 15. The Role of Insurance in Risk Management for Natural Disasters: Back to the Future
—Howard Kunreuther
Chapter 16. Improving Individual Flood Preparedness Through Insurance Incentives
—W. J. Wouter Botzen
Chapter 17. Strong and Well-Enforced Building Codes as an Effective Disaster Risk Reduction Tool: An Evaluation
—Jeffrey Czajkowski
PART V. GOVERNMENT AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Chapter 18. Getting the Blend Right: Public-Private Partnerships in Risk Management
—Cary Coglianese
Chapter 19. The Regulation of Insurance Markets Subject to Catastrophic Risks
—Robert W. Klein
Chapter 20. Rethinking Government Disaster Relief in the United States: Evidence and a Way Forward
—Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan
List of Contributors
Index
عن المؤلف
Howard Kunreuther is the James G. Dinan Professor Emeritus of Decision Sciences and Public Policy and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. He is coeditor of On Risk and Disaster: Lessons from Hurricane Katrina, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press. Robert J. Meyer is the Frederick H. Ecker/Met Life Insurance Professor of Marketing and Co-Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan is a partner at Mc Kinsey and Company. He was formerly Executive Director of the Risk Management and Decision Processes Center at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
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