Alex Capri 
Techno-Nationalism [EPUB ebook] 
How It’s Reshaping Trade, Geopolitics and Society

Wsparcie

The essential book on technology-related competition between nations and its impact on the world

Nations have long sought to use technology as a power-multiplier for their own ambitions. In the twenty-first century, at a time of unprecedented innovation, the United States and China are in a race to achieve technological superiority. But how will this affect long-standing trade ties and the international landscape?

Techno-nationalism holds that a nation’s economic strength and its national security — even its social stability— are linked to the technological prowess of its institutions and enterprises. From artificial intelligence and biotechnology to semiconductors and quantum science, nations that fall behind in the technology race risk becoming permanent losers, with potentially catastrophic consequences. After decades of trade liberalization and free-flowing investment into China, a paradigm shift amongst a bloc of like-minded, mostly Western countries, has set in motion epic change. Techno-nationalism is reorganizing the global economy.

Alex Capri, who spent decades as a trade and supply chain professional in China and throughout the world, lays out the dynamics of this change and its underlying themes, from the paradox facing U.S.-China commercial linkages to the grey zones in which states and firms must now try to coexist. He provides a realist’s perspective of both the challenges and opportunities facing international actors.

Regarding the elements of techno-nationalism, Capri paints a masterful picture of the strategic decoupling of supply chains and the re-shoring of key manufacturing ecosystems such as semiconductors. He provides an illuminating account of the geopolitics of data, and the fragmentation of the digital landscape, as well as the bifurcation of financial markets, academia, and R&D around Chinese and American spheres of influence.

These themes carry through to Capri’s fascinating accounts of the modern-day space-race, and space-based Internet, undersea cables, hypersonic warfare, the AI arms race, drones, and robotics. The book’s clear explanations of semiconductors and their importance is highly useful.

TECHNO-Nationalism is a must-read for business and government leaders, investors and strategists, academics, journalists, NGOs, or anyone who wants to experience a thoroughly entertaining and educational account of one the most important issues of our time.

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List of Illustrations & Diagrams xvii

List of Images xix

Part I The Elements of Techno-Nationalism 1

Introduction: My China Lessons 3

Three Important Lessons 5

The Origins of This Book 9

Chapter 1 Techno-Nationalism 11

The Power of the State 14

The Great Reorganisation 17

The Great Bifurcation 19

Paradoxes and Contradictions 21

A Steady Shift Towards Decoupling 22

States and Firms in a Grey Zone 24

The Big Questions 27

Overview of Sections and Chapters 29

Chapter 2 The Technology Feedback Loop 31

Early International Talent Wars 32

Early British Export Controls 33

History’s Technology Feedback Loop 34

The Dutch Seafaring Technologies 39

Techno-Nationalism and the Four Industrial Revolutions 41

Physics and Chemistry Wars 42

Computers, Atomic Bombs and a Space Race 44

The Manhattan Project 46

The Third Industrial Revolution (3IR) 47

China’s 4IR Feedback Loop 49

Chapter 3 Paradigm Shift and Paradox 51

Paradigm Shift Becomes Policy 52

CEOs versus Techno-Nationalists 56

The Wicked Paradox 59

Chapter 4 The In-China-for-China Grey Zone 63

Welcome to the Grey Zone 63

The Traditional ‘In-China-for-China’ Model 67

China’s Tech Subsidies: From TVs to EVs 67

China’s Anti-Espionage Laws 70

Chapter 5 De-Risking and Decoupling 75

Stratified Global Value Chains 77

States versus Firms 79

The Ukraine War, De-Risking and Decoupling 80

Decoupling from Russia 81

De-risking and Decoupling from China 82

China’s De-Americanisation Long Game 84

Chapter 6 Export Controls 85

Export Controls in the Modern Era 87

Blacklisted Entities 90

Extraterritoriality 91

Workarounds, Loopholes and Backdoors 94

High Approval Rates, Long Grace Periods and Binge-Buying 95

Cloud Access, Third-Party Backdoors and Black Markets 97

A Revamped, Multilateral Export Control Regime 99

Chapter 7 Semiconductor Ground Zero 103

Chip-Centric Geopolitics 104

What are Semiconductors? 105

Semiconductor Global Value Chains 107

Moore’s Law 108

Chip-Manufacturing Choke Points 111

Packaging 117

Rationalised Supply Chains 118

Chapter 8 China’s Semiconductor Problem 121

Trailing-Edge Chips 123

Leading-Edge Chips 125

China’s False-Positive Chip Test 127

The Road Behind and Ahead 129

Chapter 9 Re shoring Chip Manufacturing to America 133

The CHIPS and Science Act 134

CHIPS and the Trailing-Edge Revolution 138

Challenges, Scepticism and Assumptions 140

Part II Undercurrents and Power-Multipliers 145

Chapter 10 The War Against Huawei 147

The Three Points of Reference 150

The Supermicro Antecedent 150

America’s Historic Telecoms-Espionage Monopoly 151

Senate Investigations into U.S. Telecoms and Spy Agencies 152

China’s Brand of Economic-Techno-Nationalism 154

State-Backed Cheap Credit for Emerging Markets 156

Huawei and China’s Digital Belt and Road Initiative 157

How the Neoliberal Model Backfired with Huawei 159

Huawei and the Quest for Chip Self-Sufficiency 160

Chapter 11 Tradecraft, Stealth and Technology 165

The Distractions of the U.S. War on Terror 166

The Technology that found Bin Laden 168

The Technology that Killed Bin Laden 170

Chinese Tradecraft and Helicopter Stealth Technology 171

Operation ‘Byzantine Hades’ 172

Fifth-Generation Fighter Jets 174

Skunkworks Legacy Feedback Loop Meets China Tradecraft 176

A New ‘Stealth’ Innovation Race Driven by AI 178

The Rise of the Drones 179

Chapter 12 Data, Biotech and Geopolitics 181

The Elements of Data Geopolitics 183

What is Data and Why is it Important? 185

Techno-Authoritarianism and Surveillance Capitalism 185

Genetic Data and National Security 186

The Biosecurity–Genome Technology Feedback Loop 187

Pharmacogenomics and Techno-Nationalism 188

Data Capitalism in the Digital Commons 190

User-Generated Content 190

Original Data Suppliers 191

The Human Genome and Data Capitalism 192

American Sci-Tech Data Hegemony 193

Data Intermediaries 194

The Different Regulatory Landscapes Around the World 195

Data Geopolitics, Soft Power and Information Wars 196

The Cambridge Analytica Milestone 196

How Data Analytics Shape the Geopolitical Landscape 197

Russian Influence Campaigns in Social Media 198

The Spread of Information Wars 199

Social Media Influencers and Bloggers 200

Platform Diplomacy 201

Intelligence Agencies Relying on Private Companies 202

Government Demands for Data Access 203

Chapter 13 The AI Arms Race 205

AI Designs a Breakthrough Drug 207

AI and the Weapons of War 208

AI and Cyberwarfare 210

AI Superpowers: The U.S. versus China 212

AI Misinformation, Deepfakes and Narrative Wars 215

AI and Chip Wars 216

Chapter 14 Quantum Technologies 219

What is Quantum Computing and Why does it Matter? 221

Quantum Supremacy and Limitations 223

Quantum Technologies and Techno-Nationalism 225

Potential Sectors and Practical Applications of Quantum Computing 226

Reinventing Public Key Cryptography 228

Patent Filings as a Benchmark 230

Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) 230

The Race Between Companies 231

Techno-Nationalism and the Future of Quantum Technologies 232

Export Controls and Ring-fencing of Strategic Ecosystems 233

Techno-Diplomacy and Quantum Technology 234

Quantum Ethics, Standards and Rules 234

Chapter 15 Hypersonic Speed 237

China’s Hypersonic Technology Snapshot 238

‘Carrier Killer’ Missiles 240

The Role of AI 242

The DARPA Answer 244

Chapter 16 The Great Undersea Cable Decoupling 247

Geopolitics, Data and Undersea Cables 248

The Technology and Competitors 252

Techno-Diplomacy and Undersea Cables 253

The SEA-ME-WE-6 254

States and Firms in the Grey Zone 255

Cable Sabotage and Warfare 256

Chapter 17 Space-Based Internet 259

Trends in Satellite Technology and Space-Geopolitics 260

Low Earth Orbit Satellites 261

A Revolution in Smallsat Technology and Manufacturing 262

Space X and the Rocket Revolution 263

The Militarisation of Space-Based Internet 264

The Grey Zone: Blurring the Line between Defence and Commerce 265

Export Controls, Sanctions and Bifurcated Global Value Chains 266

Starlink Internet and the Russia–Ukraine War 267

Lethal Eyes, Ears and the Drone Revolution 269

Open-Sourced War in the Digital Global Commons 269

The Grey Zone: State versus Firms 270

The Rise of Space Monopolies 272

A Multilateral Rules Framework for Space? 272

Chapter 18 The Twenty-First-Century Space Race 275

The Commercialisation of Space 277

The New Space Markets 278

Emerging Space Industries 279

Space Robots 281

The Rise and Rise of Space X 282

Semiconductors and the Twenty-First-Century Space Race 286

Neolibs versus Techno-Nationalists 288

Tech Start-Ups 290

The Militarisation of Space 292

The Bifurcation of Space Research 294

De-Risking Aerospace Global Supply Chains 295

Re-Shoring 297

Space Blocs 298

Chapter 19 Drones, Robots and Autonomous Weapons 301

The Rise of the Machines 302

Inflection Points 303

The Russia–Ukraine War 304

Turkish and Iranian Drones 304

Kamikaze in a Backpack 306

The Shift to Lethal Autonomous Weapons 307

The Ethical Dilemma of Lethal Autonomous Systems 311

Part III Climate, Cleantech and Agritech 313

Chapter 20 Climate Change and Geopolitics 315

The Geopolitics of Energy Infrastructure 317

The Cleantech Arena 318

Climate Competition in Emerging Markets 318

China’s Infrastructure-For-Resources Deals 320

Values-Driven Infrastructure Projects 321

Multilateral Infrastructure Alliances 322

The Digital Infrastructure Nexus 324

China’s Island-Building Diplomacy 326

Chapter 21 The Geopolitics of Electric Vehicles 329

The Core Areas of EV Techno-Nationalism 330

Twenty-First-Century Electrification of the Automotive Industry 331

New Regulations and Funding 332

The EV Ecosystem and Composition of EVs 333

The Simplicity of Electric Motors 334

China: EV Techno-Nationalist Ground-Zero 335

China’s Dominance of Rare Earth Materials 336

Accelerated Decoupling in Rare Earths Supply Chains 337

The Re-shoring and Ring-fencing of Rare Earths 338

China’s Dominance of Lithium-ion Batteries and Related Supply Chains 339

Critical Components and Minerals 340

The Geographic Ring-fencing of Li-ion Battery Production 340

A Story of China’s EV Battery Techno-Nationalism 341

Forced Reliance on Chinese Suppliers 342

America and Europe’s EV Subsidies, Initiatives and Techno-Nationalist Road Map 343

U.S. EV Techno-Diplomacy 343

Emerging EV Fragmentation and Clusters 344

Chapter 22 Semiconductors and Electric Vehicle Wars 347

The Blurring of Automotive and Technology Companies 348

The Challenges of ‘Dual-use’ EV Technologies 349

Cross-Border Microchip Innovation 350

Foreign Venture Capital in a Geopolitical Context 351

An EV Software and Hardware Open Platform 352

Silicon Carbide and Gallium Nitrogen Chips 353

Connected Cars and National Security Risks 354

Subsidies for the EV–Semiconductor Nexus 355

The Road Ahead 356

Chapter 23 Food Security and Techno-Nationalism 357

Food Protectionism on the Rise 358

The ‘Friend-shoring’ of Food Supply Chains 359

Technology and Food Security 360

Precision Agriculture 362

Vertical Farming 363

Laboratory-grown Protein 364

Agritech and Industrial Espionage 364

Water Scarcity and Technology 366

The Geopolitics of Water Scarcity 366

Part IV Innovation, Academia, Alliances and Diplomacy 369

Chapter 24 Techno-Nationalism on Campus 371

The Changing Academic Landscape 373

Academic Ring-Fencing 374

Middle-Country Universities 375

Student Nationalities 376

China’s Thousand Talents Programme and Academic Espionage 377

Rule Frameworks and Research Security 379

Screening the Sources of Funding 380

The Military and Academia 382

Chapter 25 Chip Schools 385

Purdue’s Silicon Moment 386

The Rise of the National Chip Hubs 388

Chip School West: Arizona State University 389

Academic Cross Border Friend-Shoring 391

Taiwan’s Global Talent Development Strategy 393

A Worldwide Shortage of Talent 394

Chapter 26 The Innovation Horse Race 397

Government Activism: Why it Matters 399

Public–Private Partnerships 400

R&D and the Paradigm Shift 402

Milestones of Chinese Techno-Nationalism 404

A Brief Reflection on the Benefits of Industrial Policy 405

Japan 406

Taiwan 407

Germany 408

The Origins of America’s Chip Policies 410

Chapter 27 India Rising? 413

India’s Fertile Economy and Technology Landscape 415

Accelerated Decoupling from China 416

India’s Digital Landscape 417

Software and Engineering Research & Development (ER&D) 419

The Pain-of-Doing-Business in India 420

Smartphones and Geopolitical Influence 422

Building World-class Clusters with Local Manufacturers 423

Printed Circuit Board Assembly and Semiconductors 424

Chapter 28 Fragmented Finance 427

Central Bank-backed Digital Currencies 427

Ideology and Digital Currency: A Clash of Civilisations 430

Digital Dystopia 431

New Accounting Standards Aimed at Chinese Companies 433

The U.S. Outbound Investment Transparency Act 434

International Banks Caught between Beijing and Washington 435

China Punishes HSBC 436

Techno-Nationalism and Fin Tech Decoupling 438

Sovereign Wealth Funds and Geopolitics 439

Chapter 29 Techno-Diplomacy and the Road Ahead 441

From FTAs to Mini-Lateral Arrangements 443

The Chip 4 Alliance (Fact or Fiction) 445

The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework 447

The AUKUS Trilateral Security Agreement 448

The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD) 450

Bilateral Techno-Diplomacy 451

AI Ethics and The Promise of Open-Sourced Platforms 452

The Great Reorganisation will Go On 455

Notes 457

Acknowledgements 505

Index 509

O autorze

ALEX CAPRI is an American writer, based in Singapore, where he teaches business and public policy at the National University of Singapore.

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